In terms of international affairs, the next two years are going to be really important. They truly represent the end of an era, as Bush, Blair, and Chirac all stumble to the end of their presidencies and prime ministries. This could really be a time for shifting alliances, but it reamins open to question which way they will shift.
The Atlantic alliance could grow stronger and continue to heal, a process that already started when Angela Merkel replaced Schroder in Germany. Gordon Brown, the presumtive successor to Blair is a committed Atlanticist. In France, the prospects are less bright, but they certainly look better than they did a year ago when de Villepin looked to be the frontrunner.
The other key change will be in Russia, where Putin is forbidden from running for another term. While there is little doubt that his successor will be handpicked and probably an autocrat in the Putin mold, having a new leader is almost certainly less worrisome than Putin changing the law to keep himself in power.
From November 22, 2005 to January 20, 2009, the executives most likely will have changed in the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Japan, and Russia. That is an incredible change over the course of 38 months. It will afford the new leaders real opportunities to develop new relationships and chart new foreign policies.
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