Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Election Probabilities

Chances of Republican Victory:
McCain v. Clinton: 50%
Romney v. Clinton: 30%
McCain v. Obama: 20%
Romney v. Obama: 5%

I think the chances of any Republican beating Obama are quite slim. The only chances Romney has are if Obama makes some big gaffe or if the Democratic primary process drags on considerably and leaves Obama damaged goods. (Bill Clinton is certainly doing his part in this regard.) McCain has a better shot against Obama, but it would still be a very difficult fight.

Both Republicans have a better shot against Clinton, but only McCain gives the party an even shot of holding the White House. McCain has a chance to pull in a number of independents that Romney likely wouldn't. Regardless of who the GOP candidate is, if Clinton is the opponent, the election would largely be a referendum on her.

What say you, Big Jim?

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