Getting on the Record

(Preliminary Note: I am writing this at 11:00 AM, while sequestered at the Federal Courthouse in Milwaukee. I have no Internet access and am unaware of any exit poll data. My only bit of empirical evidence is that I didn’t have to wait in line this morning to vote.)

(Preliminary Note for the optimistic Republican: Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.)

As longtime readers of WHTC may recall, I accurately predicted the results of all 50 states in the 2004 presidential election. See here for details. I haven’t had the time to track the polls as closely this year, but I didn’t want to pass up a chance to match the feat again.

Unfortunately for the future of the Republic, I see Obama winning fairly comfortably, 311-227. I think McCain has run a pretty good campaign overall, but the currents working against him will prove too tough to overcome.

McCain States

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
West Virginia
Wyoming

Obama States

California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin

The good news is that we should know a lot by early in the evening. If things look hopeful, I’ll stay tuned into the night. If they don’t, I’ll do homework while watching my wife play Star Wars: The Force Unleashed on our Wii. A good night either way. Here is a mini-schedule of the important early closings with some things to watch for:

7:00 ET: Georgia, Indiana, and Virginia. If the networks don’t call Georgia and Indiana for McCain early, or if they immediately call Virginia for Obama, things will look pretty grim.

7:30 ET: North Carolina and Ohio. Cliches endure for a reason: As Ohio goes, so goes the presidential race. Though unlikely, an immediate call in North Carolina for McCain would be a strong indicator of a good night for him.

8:00 ET: Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania. Florida and Missouri have been two of the closest states coming down the stretch; both are must-wins for McCain. The GOP, meanwhile, has campaigned harder in Pennsylvania in the last month than in any other state, so an early call for Obama would be disastrous.

(Closing Note: A semi-regular blogging schedule should resume in December. This semester has been brutal.)